Nuclear war expert Bill Perry to speak in Petaluma

“Humankind is in a race with utter catastrophe, and most people don’t even know it,” says Dr. William Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense. “And I can’t say I’m optimistic about our chances. I don’t know if a nuclear disaster is going to happen a year from now, or five years from now, but if something isn’t done to reverse course, it will happen. And the result will be the end of human civilization. This isn’t a movie. It isn’t science-fiction. It’s real.”

In Dr. Perry’s riveting 2015 memoir, “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink,” he writes about growing up in Cold War America, with backyard fallout shelters and duck-and-cover drills in schools, and his numerous roles in U.S. government working to keep America safe. These include a brief, terrifying time as a defense consultant during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and his four-year stint as Secretary of Defense under President Clinton. In his book, he describes moments when he was not sure the country would escape a nuclear war, and then did, and talks of the relief he felt when the U.S.S.R. disbanded, and the threat of imminent nuclear exchange seemed to dissipate for the first time since the early 1950s.

“At that time, I thought that was it, we were out of the danger, and we’d never be so stupid as to wander back into it again,” he says. “But my own belief now, is that the current situation is more dangerous, that the threat of a nuclear catastrophe is more likely today, than it was back when school children were ducking under desks.”

Perry, 90, says his fears have returned multifold, and that the world is now closer to nuclear cataclysm than it has been since the Cold War days, and yet most people are unaware of the danger. Whether as an act of terrorism, a military strike, or a simple technological malfunction, Perry - who began his career as a mathematician - believes that the sheer number of nuclear weapons that currently exist magnifies the chances of one being detonated, and that even a single nuclear explosion could lead to an escalation of political actions that essentially adds up to the end of life as we know it. A wider use of such weapons - such as in a wholly conceivable exchange between India and Pakistan - would have unspeakable consequences.

To spread the word, Perry has been teaching a Stanford University course titled “Living at the Nuclear Brink: Yesterday and Today,” delivered online as a “MOOC” (Massive Open Online Course). Working with his son David Perry, a Petaluma resident, he’s also created a series of animated YouTube videos, beginning with “Bill Perry’s Nuclear Nightmare,” illustrating through succinct storytelling, exactly how such a disaster might occur. Since the first video went up online, it’s received hundreds of thousands of views.

Next Week, on Thursday, March 29, 12:15 p.m., Perry will bring his message to Petaluma’s SRJC Campus, with an onstage discussion of strategies to avoid nuclear war. Perry will be interviewed by Dr. Donna Brasset-Shearer. With a Ph.D. in cultural anthropology from UC Berkeley, and a background in international relations, Brasset-Shearer in a Cold War expert in her own right, having studied the attitudes about nuclear weapons and nuclear war among senior Dept. of Defense officials. Perry will also be taking questions from the audience.

Perry, reached on the phone at his office in Los Altos, anticipates that one question he will be asked this Sunday is, “What can I, as a regular person, do about any of this?”

“That’s the absolutely critical question, one I ask myself every day,” he says. “It’s not a very satisfying answer, but the first thing you have to do, as an ordinary citizen, is to educate yourself on the problem. Most people are not doing that, and the reason we’re not able to get any traction in dealing with this problem in Washington is that we are a democracy, and the government responds to the will of the people. And in this case, the people do not understand the danger they are in. So, getting educated on this issue is the first thing we all have to do, so that we have an educated electorate, who can understand the problem, and urge action. That’s the first step. Political action, the second step, is really not possible until that happens.”

It’s to help educate people on these issues that Perry travels the country, speaking at events like this weekend’s lecture-discussion in Petaluma, and looking for new ways to reach enough concerned people, that the politicians will eventually be provoked into doing something.

“The videos have been a very effective way of calling attention to this problem,” Perry says. “The first two – one on how nuclear terrorism could take place in Washington D.C., and one on how a nuclear exchange could take place in the Middle East - have received quite a lot of attention. We’re getting ready to release a third one soon, on the very real dangers of an accidental nuclear war.”

In addition, Perry says he continues to visit Washington, sitting down with politicians to make them aware of the risks. Though he says he’s found some receptive ears, winning over politicians - especially on an issue that gotten very little press and almost no nationwide attention - is a slow, painstaking process. That said, he has no intention of stopping anytime soon.

“How can I stop?” Perry asks. “I’m pessimistic that any of it will matter, frankly, but I have to do something, educating people little by little, encouraging them to share what they learn, to invite friends over for discussion groups and watch these videos and talk about them. I know it’s not very satisfying, because such things do not lead to immediate action. But education is necessary to get to where we need to.

“My hope,” he adds, “is that we will get to the point of real political action before it’s too late.”

(Contact David at david.templeton@arguscourier.com)