Black Friday: On your mark, get ready, shop!

Thanksgiving is a time for family, friends, traditions and shopping, as Santa Rosa resident Frances Palomares well knows.

She waits outside Best Buy on Santa Rosa Avenue the Wednesday morning before Thanksgiving with her 12-year-old grandson Daniel Rodriguez and four other family members to be first in line for holiday sales.

The family marked its spot at 11 a.m. Wednesday, sleeping on the sidewalk and eating an early turkey dinner prepared by Palomares.

“It’s fun, we’re always the first in line,” said Rodriguez, an eighth-grader at Slater Middle School who wanted a 60-inch TV and games for his Xbox when the store opened at 5 p.m.

Despite his excitement, pre-Black Friday fervor has waned over the past few years. According to the National Retail Federation, this year will be the first time more people shop online - an estimated 59 percent - than in stores, as they skip the lines and chaos.

The retail trade association’s annual survey with Prosper Insights & Analytics, found an estimated 164 million Americans planned to shop or consider shopping during the Thanksgiving weekend that includes the holiday, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, oh yeah, no nickname Sunday.

The survey figures that 32 million planned to shop on Thanksgiving, 115 million today, 71 million Saturday, 35 million Sunday and 78 million Monday, meaning multiple shopping days for multiple shoppers.

Patty Moynihan of Sebastopol and Joanne Miller of Nice stood in line behind Palomares Thursday, talking like old friends even though they just met the night before. All said they’ve seen longer lines in years past with more people willing to camp on concrete overnight. Still, there were well over 100 people in a line wrapping around the building at 4 p.m. Thursday.

Across the parking lot Costco was closed for the holiday as was the nearby Marshalls.

While, according to the retail federation, shoppers nationally are likely to spend more this year than they did in 2016, Sonoma County holiday shopping could be impacted by the October fires that caused more than $3 billion in damage.

“We think it will be a slower winter season, it will be challenging,” said Ben Stone, executive director for the Sonoma County Economic Development Board. “People have lost their businesses, jobs and homes and don’t have the money to spend as in years past.”

Consumers are expected to spend an average of $967.13 this holiday season, according to the retail trade group, increasing total spending by a high estimate of 4 percent to $682 billion from $655.8 billion last year.

For Stone, a decrease in local purchasing power and the growing dominance of the online sector makes it important for Sonoma County residents to patronize local businesses. Research has shown that after disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, only 15 percent of lost sales volume is recovered, meaning if sales drop by $100,000 only $15,000 is earned back.

Every $100 spent in Sonoma County spent at local businesses generates $168 in local economic activity, Stone said.

“This is a big time of year for retail, and local businesses need our support,” he said. “There’s concern that even if business didn’t burn there was economic injury.”

Stone said the local economy should get up to speed in early 2018 when businesses reopen and tourism rebounds.

At the Santa Rosa Plaza just before 6 p.m. Thursday there didn’t appear to be any concerns about the economic impact of fires and online spending. About 100 people waited for the mall to open while kids entertained themselves by making faces in the glass doors.

Once inside, brothers Nicholas and Noel Nuñez, 16 and 19, of Santa Rosa stood in line at Tilly’s for checkout. Both held a free Adidas blanket given away by the store to its first Thanksgiving shoppers.

“There are no other days you can get deals like this,” Noel Nuñez said after his brother bought a pair of sneakers.

Walking down the mall corridors decked with wreaths and red, green and gold trim for the holidays, Santa Rosa Plaza general manager Kristin Dyson said she was optimistic for the holiday season sales, despite the fires and online competition.

“Coming here and shopping is part of the holiday experience people enjoy,” she said. “There’s always a lot of excitement this time of year.”

Staff Writer Christi Warren contributed to this story.You can reach Staff Writer Nick Rahaim at 707-521-5203 or nick.rahaim@pressdemocrat.com. ?On Twitter @nrahaim.