Barrett leading Harris in election fundraising

If total money raised decided who won Petaluma elections, Teresa Barrett would be a shoo-in for mayor. She has raised $56,574.54, according to her latest campaign finance report. That’s 40 percent more than her closest opponent, Mike Harris, who has raised $33,894.32 year to date.

But more money doesn’t always translate into more votes, political analysts say.

“If you look at it purely on money, she’s got the lead. But that’s not how it works in Petaluma,” said Brian Sobel, a former city council member and longtime political analyst and consultant who studies elections all over the country. “Money is important, but there are other things at play.”

Historically speaking, money raised has had little correlation to winning races. When Harris ran for mayor in 2014, he amassed a war chest of $50,469, nearly twice as much as his opponent David Glass at $25,322. Harris lost that election by 84 votes in a race so close, it was weeks before the Sonoma County Registrar of Voters officially named Glass as the winner.

In the 2016 council race, challenger Bill Wolpert raised the most donor dollars with $21,614 in his bank account. But it wasn’t enough to take down incumbents Mike Healy ($16,280), Gabe Kearny ($11,115) or Kathy Miller ($15,640).

“Name recognition is a big factor,” Sobel added. “People will vote for people simply because they’ve heard of the candidate, without knowing their positions on the issues.”

Face time with constituents is a bigger influencer on who wins local elections, he said. It takes pounding the pavement and reaching out to each voter directly to make an impact on Election Day.

“I can’t overstate the importance of walking and talking to people,” Sobel said. “Some candidates make the critical mistake of thinking money and mailers can make up for meeting people.”

Barrett says she has been walking the streets of Petaluma, hitting up thousands of homes in the weeks before the mail-in ballots dropped. Harris, with the help of volunteers, has reached out to more than 4,000 homes across the city. The third mayoral challenger, Brian Powell, is running more of a sleeper campaign, without raising money, purchasing signs or any other campaign items.

“(Powell will) get votes, it’s just a question of whether he’ll take votes from Harris or take votes from Barrett,” Sobel said.

When asked whether campaign signs are an indicator of votes, Sobel said it’s not that simple. If it were, Harris would have a hearty lead based on the large number of signs displaying his name around town. “People draw impressions from signs that the person is popular,” Sobel said. “Signage helps a whole lot, but not as much as a candidate taking the time to come to your door in a local election.”

A smart candidate knows how to target the right houses. Election data that highlights which constituents are most likely to vote is readily available these days, meaning candidates can map out the places they’re most likely to pick up votes.

“Campaigns have gotten very sophisticated in this area,” Sobel said. “I could tell you exactly who votes, and how often they vote.”

The crowded city council field of seven candidates, only one of whom, Dave King, is an incumbent, could mean unexpected outcomes in this year’s race.

“In the council race, there’s a bunch of people no one has ever heard of before,” Sobel said. “Some people benefit from being lost in the pack. People pick up votes for reasons you wouldn’t expect. Names have a big impact.”

He gave the example that D’Lynda Fischer could see a boost in votes simply because her name sounds similar to popular Santa Rosa Junior College board member Maggie Fishman. “People might think they’ve heard of her before,” he said.

Another factor that could skew this year’s results is that it is not a presidential year, which draws more voters to the ballots. In 2016, 57,740 votes were cast in the Petaluma City Council race. In 2014, 44,548 votes were tallied in the council race and just 18,420 in the mayoral race.

“I’m expecting razor thin margins this year,” Sobel said.