JJ SAYS: The reality is that the opposition is tough

In this week’s Argus-Courier we preview all four of our local football teams - Casa Grande, Petaluma, St. Vincent and Tomales. Each story is full of optimism and hope, as well they should be as a new season begins. Until Friday night, all the local teams are tied for first place in their respective leagues. Where they will be in November is a matter of conjecture.

Following is what I realistically think about the local teams chances of still standing tall in November. Remember, I’m talking reality and not dreams. The good news is that the prognosis for all four teams is generally good, but for all there are some major obstacles to overcome.

Casa Grande is the best football team in our area and, maybe, the Redwood Empire, but the Gauchos have to prove their worth. The Gauchos are not as good as last season’s 13-1 team. No Casa team before has ever been that good and it will be a long time before a Big House team is ever that good again.

The Gauchos are very good. Are they good enough to repeat as North Bay League champions? We’ll know in November. It seems to me that they are, but I really don’t think they will go through the regular season undefeated. Their pre-league season is treacherous, beginning with Analy and including a Franklin team from Elk Grove that is ranked among the best in the state.

Casa Grande is still the team to beat in the North Bay League, but that road is a rough one. The NBL doesn’t get the respect it deserves as one of the better leagues in Northern California.

This year, Cardinal Newman, as it always is, will be a team to be reckoned with, but Montgomery will be much improved and the Vikings always give the Gauchos a battle. Rancho Cotate has the potential to be the best of the bunch and watch out for Santa Rosa. The Panthers aren’t going to win the pennant, but they will beat one or two teams who look past their speed and skills.

Petaluma is better than the team that went to the playoffs last season. The Trojans have more depth, more size and, despite losing Gabe Medina, more overall team speed. Their biggest problem is that they are in a Sonoma County League that includes a Goliath called Analy. To win the pennant, the Trojans are going to have to load their collective slingshot and call themselves “David.”

Although Analy towers over the SCL, there are several other good teams. I saw Healdsburg scrimmage at St. Vincent last week, and the rumblings about a good Hound team are based on fact, not rumor. John Antonio has built a real program at Piner and the Prospectors will be good again and don’t overlook Sonoma. The Dragons would be my surprise pick.

Bottom line: the Trojans should make the playoffs again, but while they are improved, so is the rest of the league, including an Analy team that lost only two games last season.

The North Central League II is back to just four teams and that means everybody plays everybody twice. The only good thing about the new alignment is that St. Vincent and Tomales don’t have to make those traffic nightmare treks to the East Bay.

I’d be surprised if St. Vincent’s Mustangs don’t go undefeated in league play. They are bigger and better up front and, when the dust settles on a difficult pre-league season, will be as talented, if not more so, at the skill positions.

It is a numbers game at Tomales where the Braves don’t have enough players to field a junior varsity team. The varsity should be good.

Their grind-it out single-wing offense makes them the only team in the league to have a chance against St. Vincent.

Calistoga was supposed to have one of its best teams of the 21st century last year, and it couldn’t beat the Mustangs. I like Upper Lake as a school and as a community, but they will again be hard-pressed to compete with the other three teams.

That’s the way I see things before Labor Day. Check with me before Thanksgiving and I will ever crow loudly or eat the bird.

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(Contact John Jackson at johnie.jackson@arguscourier.com).