Windy storm will push out smoke, but the Camp fire’s smog may return

Aside from a “fluke” rain in early October, locals have to look back to April 7 to find precipitation above an inch.|

Storms expected to soak the North Bay could end Santa Rosa’s record run of unhealthy air quality as soon as Tuesday, but whether smoke from the deadly Camp fire returns hinges on rainfall in Butte County.

The forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of rain in Santa Rosa from early Wednesday to Friday, marking the official start of the rainy season, said Steve Anderson, a National Weather Service meteorologist. Aside from a “fluke” rain in early October, locals have to look back to April 7 to find precipitation above an inch, he said.

“Pretty much everyone from San Francisco to Seattle will see rain,” Anderson said.

He said the winds will reverse and the weather will briefly dry up after this week’s storms.

Southerly winds blowing into Santa Rosa today are expected to push away smoke that drifted south from the Camp fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California’s history.

Between 3 and 5 inches of rain is expected to fall in Butte County this week, Anderson said, and the air here will depend on the rainfall there.

“There will be a little shift back to the north, but if there’s no smoke to transport, it’s kind of a moot point,” Anderson said. “It’s all up in the air right now whether the smoke will come back.”

Regardless, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District is expecting a “huge improvement” in conditions starting this afternoon, said Simrun Dhoot, a spokeswoman for the district.

“We’re hoping for really strong winds,” she said. “That’s what’s going to push away the pollution from us.”

The winds will result in “moderate” air quality conditions from Wednesday to Friday after a spate of “unhealthy” or “very unhealthy” days in the Bay Area, Dhoot said.

The 13 consecutive days of “Spare the Air” alerts from Tuesday back to Nov. 8 - the day the Camp fire started - is a record for the district, Dhoot said. The previous record was 11 days straight due to wood burning in early 2015, followed by a 10-day streak after the October 2017 wildfires that devastated Sonoma County.

As of Monday, no alert was in place for Thanksgiving, Dhoot said, meaning people seeking a snug holiday could light up wood fireplaces if they wanted. However, she said, that’s subject to change over the next two days.

Anderson said Wednesday’s rain will come the day before Thanksgiving, so the slick roads will impact legions of travelers as well as folks making their normal commute. He said people traversing the Sierra Nevada mountains can expect snow and should carry tire chains.

“Everybody in a car on the road will be affected,” he said.

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